Warming Up for 2019 i

Tiga pasangan calon Gubernur dan wakil gubernur DKI jakarta, mulai no. urut 1. Agus Yudhoyono dan Sylviana murni, no. urut 2 Basuki Tjahja Purnama dan Djarot Saiful Hidayat, No. urut 3 Anies Baswedan dan Sandiaga Uno menyanyikan lagu Indonesia Raya dalam debat perdana yang diselenggarakan KPU DKI di Jakarta, Jumat (13/1/2017) malam. KPU DKI Jakarta telah menentukan tema untuk debat perdana, Tema-tema tersebut seputar ekonomi, pendidikan, keamanan, transportasi, dan lingkungan. SP/Joanito De Saojoao.

By : elsid_arendra | on 4:41 PM February 07, 2017
Category : Cover Story

The Jakarta gubernatorial election has gained significance because it will not only decide who will govern Indonesia’s capital city, but also because it is seen as a major step in political party mapping for the presidential election in 2019. The drama of the campaign trail, especially mass street protests demanding that Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama be jailed for blasphemy and a good serving of hate speech, have colored day-to-day events leading up to the February 15 poll. Former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s (SBY) comeback to the political scene is to support his son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, who is teamed with experienced bureaucrat Sylviana Murni. Agus, a former military officer, is supported by some of the political parties that currently support the government of Joko Widodo, who represents the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) of Megawati Sukarnoputri. Her own party is backing the incumbents. Other political parties supporting Agus and Sylvi are the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP). At the 2014 election, the three parties won 1,246,098 votes in the capital, equal to 27.4 % of the total. Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok and Djarot Saiful Hidayat are backed by the PDI-P, Wiranto’s People’s Conscience Party (Hanura), Surya Paloh’s National Democrats (Nasdem) and Golkar Party, which put its weight behind Prabowo Subiato in the 2014 presidential election. In total the four parties won 2,171,187 votes in Jakarta in 2014, or 47.8% of the total. As for Megawati, she has no doubts about Ahok’s capability. She and Ahok have a good personal relationship even though Ahok is not a PDI-P member. She understands that he has nationwide support from a variety of different political backgrounds and if he succeeds in winning a new term in leading Jakarta and manages to stay out of jail, he will be a useful ally for the PDI-P in 2019. He might also be the right person to pair on the ticket with Joko Widodo. Ahok has publicly indicated his willingness to join the presidential election process. The third set of candidates, Anies Baswedan and running mate businessman Sandiaga Uno are supported by Prabowo Subianto’s Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Ahok was formerly a Gerindra stalwart before he left to become an independent. Many people believe that Anies has not performed well but a shot at the presidency is still a possibility.  In 2013-2014 he participated in the Democratic Party’s presidential convention but failed to win support, losing to Dahlan Iskan. Together, Gerindra and PKS took 22% of support in the 2014 poll, with 1,016,968 votes. Given the strong emotions and often primordial tone of Jakarta’s people, influenced by modern political marketing, Agus could be a strong contender for the presidency in 2019. His family’s Democratic Party would work hard to support Agus if he can win the Jakarta governor election.  His father-in-law Hatta Rajasa, a powerful figure in the National Mandate Party (PAN), would also lend his support. “Indonesia’s political relationships are combined with indications of institutional relationships (in a mixture) that has become so personal,” says UGM Professor Deny Indrayana. He adds that the nature of Jakarta politics is a mirror-image of the rivalry between the country’s three veteran politicians, SBY, Megawati and Prabowo. Many believe that the Jakarta election is a dress rehearsal for the next presidential election or at least a guide to the map of political party coalitions in 2019.  Golkar has already announced it will support Jokowi for a second term, and PDI-P will certainly back the incumbent as the personal relationship between Megawati and Jokowi has now been settled. Hanura and Nasdem will also continue to back the incumbent. SBY and his family want to keep their political dynasty alive and see the Democratic Party they founded as his political vehicle regain support in the next election. Winning the gubernatorial elections this year will leave the way open for Agus to be groomed to develop a stronger public image to prepare for a presidential candidacy. For Anies, winning the Jakarta governor race would allow him to build a network and provide free publicity for his own run for the top job: as long as he can get Prabowo to give up his own ambitions and support him.